The coronavirus epidemic is still on the decline in Finland – vaccinations reduce the incidence of severe disease in particular

There is still a clear downward trend for the coronavirus epidemic in Finland. According to the register data of the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), the number of people in specialised medical care or intensive care and deaths caused by the coronavirus, as well as the incidence rate, have decreased significantly in all age groups since the peak in March and April. 

Measuring the number of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus infections does not currently provide a reliable picture of the epidemic, as testing practices have changed. Many people with a positive result in a coronavirus home test do not verify the result with a PCR test, so the infection doesn’t get officially registered. 

THL records any deaths within 30 days from a positive coronavirus test reported to the National Infectious Diseases Register as coronavirus-related deaths so that the development of the epidemic can also be monitored in very fragile populations. The number of these coronavirus-related deaths has decreased steadily since the peak at the end of March. The data on the deaths of the last few weeks is inadequate due to a delay in reporting and deaths are likely to increase slightly, but the downward trend is still clear until June.  

The numbers and incidences of coronavirus infections, people in specialised medical care or intensive care and deaths have been used as indicators of the course of the coronavirus epidemic, burden of disease and vaccination protection (see appendix).

The protective effect of vaccines is excellent against severe coronavirus disease but short-lived against infection

THL would like to remind that the current coronavirus vaccines provide excellent protection against severe coronavirus disease and death. However, their protective effect is only adequate and short-lived against coronavirus infection and mild disease, also for the Omicron virus variants BA.4 and BA.5, which are currently becoming more widespread in Finland.  

The Ministry of Social Affairs and Health updated the coronavirus vaccination strategy last week. According to the strategy, the aim of vaccinations is to keep our society open, to safeguard the adequacy of health care capacity and, in particular, to reduce the incidence of severe coronavirus disease. 

When comparing the risk of developing a severe form of the disease and dying after a coronavirus infection, the risk has been many times lower in 2022 than in previous pandemic years. 

The aim is to increase the proportion of vaccinated people in the population as recommended, especially in the groups with the highest risk of severe disease. Older people are most at risk of developing severe coronavirus disease, but even their risk clearly lower than before. Certain underlying diseases and the use of medications that may impair the effectiveness of vaccinations also increase the risk of infection.

At the moment, the protective effect of three vaccine doses is excellent against severe coronavirus disease and deaths caused by coronavirus in the majority of adults and children in Finland, which is why there are currently no grounds for extensive fourth coronavirus vaccinations in the population. THL therefore recommends fourth vaccine doses for vulnerable population groups with a risk of severe coronavirus disease: those aged 80 or over and those in risk groups aged 70–79. 

Additionally, the fourth coronavirus vaccine dose is recommended for those living in elderly care homes and older people under organised home care or informal care as well as other older people whose health and functional capacity have deteriorated correspondingly and who cannot cope alone at home. THL recommends a fifth dose of the coronavirus vaccine for those with severe immune deficiencies. 

“It is important to understand what the aim of the coronavirus vaccinations is and what kind of protection can be expected from the vaccines,” says Hanna Nohynek, Chief Physician at THL.

THL issues recommendations on medical grounds and assesses the relationship between resources and health benefits

Both medical criteria and assessments of the relationship between the resources used and the health benefits achieved are used in preparation of national vaccination recommendations. THL has decided on the current vaccination recommendations based on the register data for April and May, the protective efficacy data for vaccines and the epidemic scenarios for the summer.

Seasonal variation in the coronavirus epidemic is expected to increase the number of infections and, as a result, the risk of severe illness in the autumn. For this reason, THL will assess well in advance of the expected acceleration of the epidemic the extension of the fourth vaccine doses to separately defined age and risk groups.It is not yet known if there will be vaccines tailored for virus variants or whether existing ones will be used at that time. This depends on when the vaccines are granted marketing authorisations and the manufacturers can start delivering the vaccines. 

THL will provide information on vaccination schedules, target groups and available vaccines during the summer.  

Further information:

Otto Helve
Chief Physician
THL
[email protected]

Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, coronavirus vaccination strategy 22 June 2022 (PDF 950 KB)

Appendix: Up-to-date numbers of coronavirus infections, people in specialised medical care or intensive care and deaths based on Finnish register data by age group (PDF 226 KB)
For weekly specialised medical care cases, it should be noted that the records that were already known in the previous week are marked in dark blue, the entries that became known during the week are marked in light blue and the entries removed from the previous figures are marked in grey. The dotted line delimits weeks at the end of the graph with notifications that only contain the initial notification of the treatment period without diagnosis. In particular, the bar after the dotted line usually lowers somewhat when periods that are not confirmed as coronavirus-related are removed two weeks after arriving at the hospital.