Alcohol use has a direct impact on the health and well-being of people in Finland. Three possible directions can be outlined for developments over the coming decade. They differ in whether alcohol consumption continues to decline, comes to a halt, or increases.
When consumption declines, public health improves
If alcohol use continues to decline in the coming years, alcohol-related harm will remain better under control. Even then, an estimated 41,000 entirely new alcohol-related diseases among men and 15,000 among women are expected to occur between 2024 and 2033.
This development would still mean thousands of new patients, but compared with the current situation, the direction would be the right one. Population well-being would improve, and the burden on health care would be reduced.
When the decline in consumption comes to a halt
If alcohol consumption remains at its current level, nearly 45,000 new alcohol-related diseases among men and approximately 16,000 among women are expected to occur over the next ten years.
A halt in the decline in consumption could also slow down the achievement of other health promotion goals, as alcohol-related harm burdens services and diverts resources from preventive work and, for example, mental health services.
When consumption turns upward
The bleakest scenario is a reversal toward increasing alcohol consumption, mirroring the earlier decline. In this case, nearly 50,000 entirely new alcohol-related diseases among men and more than 17,000 among women would occur between 2024 and 2033, in addition to a potential increase in morbidity among those already affected by alcohol-related harm.
An increase in diseases, accidents, and the need for treatment would be widely reflected across society—in work ability, social services and the everyday lives of families.
The future is shaped by decisions
The scenarios show that future developments are the result of choices. However, the direction of development is not the responsibility of individuals alone.
Alcohol consumption is influenced by the living environment, including societal decisions: how alcohol is sold and marketed, and what its price is in relation to income.
"The scenarios clearly show that trends in alcohol consumption matter for the extent of harm experienced. These trends can, in turn, be influenced by political choices. Responsible decisions on availability, the alcohol monopoly and pricing genuinely affect the lives and health of many people in Finland," says Pia Mäkelä, Research Professor at THL.
Decision-makers have access to measures proven effective by research—restricting availability, price policy and regulating marketing. Each of these impacts on population health and well-being.
Three scenarios for the development of alcohol-related health problems in 2024–2033 (in Finnish)
The report examines groups of alcohol-related diseases that are widely treated in the healthcare system.
THL published scenarios on the effects of smoking and alcohol use on public health over the next ten years (in Finnish)
If alcohol consumption continues to decline, thousands of new alcohol-related illnesses could be avoided.