Objectives

The project has two aims:

1. Estimation of the proportion of ill health attributable to modifiable risk factors where the objectives are to

• understand determinants of the health inequalities and their changes over time, and to assess the contribution of modifiable risk factors to these inequalities;
• assess the impact of modifiable risk factors and their combinations to mortality and disability adjusted life-years (DALYs); and
• assess the impact of modifiable risk factors and their combinations on healthy life expectancy and disability and disease free life years.

2. Providing projections of the incidence, prevalence and number of cases of major chronic disease and disability measures under different scenarios in the whole population and its sub-groups. For this aim, the objectives are to

• assess and document the strengths and weaknesses of available projection methods;
• prepare statistical methods for projecting incidence, prevalence, life expectancy and expected healthy life years and the number of diseased individuals accounting for birth cohort differences and trends;
• account for sampling, parameter, model and prediction uncertainties in the projections using, for example, Bayesian predictive distributions or multiple imputation techniques;
• assess existing knowledge from randomized clinical trials (RCT) about intervention effects; and
• provide projections on health outcomes and risk factors.

The main focus will be on diseases (IHD, cerebrovascular diseases, lung cancer, COPD, Alzheimer’s disease and diabetes) which have been shown by previous Global Burden of Disease estimates to be among the top ten causes of both DALYs and YLLs, premature mortality, physical and cognitive disability and multi-morbidity. We will focus on modifiable risk factors which are common for most of the included diseases; hypertension, hyperlipidemia, obesity, diabetes, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol use, and diet.

Health projections under different risk factor and policy scenarios are highly relevant for policy makers and other stakeholders working in the field of public health and especially on prevention of chronic diseases. Based on our results, preventive activities and health policies can be planned more optimally in the sub-groups of the adult population.